Carbon Tax Assessment Model

The Carbon Tax Assessment Model (CTAM) is an open source model that quantifies the greenhouse gas and fiscal impacts of a carbon tax on the five primary energy sectors. Results from the model helps to provide policy recommendations for Washington State.

Since development of the model, it has been improved upon and maintained by staff in the Washington State Energy Office. The Carbon Tax Assessment Model is setup for the State of Washington, but it can easily be adapted for other states.

The following features were added to the model. In general, these are optional and variable features, reflecting potential complementary policies to a carbon tax.

  • The price elasticity of demand and proration tables for fuels in CTAM were been updated. Industrial process emissions are included in the model.
  • Electricity sector emissions are consumption-based instead of generation-based.
  • Optional and variable reductions to any of the five primary energy-consuming sectors, reflecting complementary GHG reductions policies that are not part of the carbon tax.
  • Optional supplemental fuel tax, reflecting a variable increase in state or federal transportation fuel taxes.
  • Optional Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) can be added as a complementary policy, similar in design to the California LCFS.
  • Optional early and variable shutdown of out-of-state coal-fired electricity generation.
  • Optional and variable increase in electric vehicle market penetration rate.
  • The graphics and tables on the dashboard tab have been improved.
  • The model uses the Energy Information Administration’s most current Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) reference case as the basis for forecasting future Washington State energy consumption.

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Greg Nothstein