Washington's Energy Indicators

19.  Transportation Sector Trends — U.S. Vehicle Fuel Efficiency

THE FUEL EFFICIENCY ADVANTAGE OF NEW VEHICLES RELATIVE TO THE EXISTING VEHICLE FLEET IS DISAPPEARING. INCREASING POPULARITY OF LARGER VEHICLES, COMBINED WITH THE AGING OF 1980S-ERA SUBCOMPACTS, MAY MEAN AN END TO YEARS OF FUEL EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS.

The difference between the fuel efficiency of new vehicles and that of the nation’s existing vehicle fleet continues to shrink and may even have disappeared. New vehicle fuel efficiency has been declining since the mid-1980s, when Congress last increased Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. CAFE standards require companies to maintain the average fuel efficiency of new vehicles at around 28 MPG for cars and 21 MPG for light trucks (which includes minivans, pickups, and sport-utility vehicles). However, CAFE has no mandates about how many vehicles may be sold in each category, and the increasing popularity of light trucks has caused the fuel efficiency of the average new vehicle to drop by two miles per gallon since 1988.

Moreover, the vehicles being replaced are no longer 1970s-era gas guzzlers, but are frequently compact, fuel-efficient, cars of the 1980s. The result is that, unlike in other sectors where newer equipment tends to be more energy efficient, vehicle stock turnover may be leading to a less efficient national fleet. With the average lifetime of light-duty vehicles being more than seven years and no end in sight to increasing demand for travel, Washington petroleum consumption will continue to increase for some years.

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